Is There Too Much Worry About the Debt?

Judging from the noises emanating from some corners of Washington these days, the federal debt has assumed pride of place as the source of national anxiety. President Obama has called for independent commissions to seek ways to reduce spending. The media are filled with talk of America's path of financial suicide; economists warn that the debt crisis in Greece is a dry run for the cataclysm that awaits America and the world as U.S. deficits and debt balloon.

The numbers are undoubtedly big, running into many trillions of dollars. The percentages are also daunting, with projections of total gross debt reaching 100% of U.S. GDP this year or next and surging every year thereafter. There is bipartisan agreement that the deficits and overall debt are unsustainable. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, has urged policymakers not just to educate the public about the dangers ahead but also "to scare them to death" about the dire prospects if the debt is allowed to continue to grow.

(See a report card on the stimulus programs.)

Almost everyone seems to think that these mounting debts are a severe threat to American prosperity. But what if the real problem isn't too much debt but too much anxiety about debt?

Let's take a closer look at the numbers. The amount the U.S. pays to service the national debt isn't particularly onerous. In fact, interest payments in 2010, which so many have touted as approaching $500 billion, are not much different in inflation-adjusted terms from what servicing cost 20 years ago, especially relative to GDP. The same is true for household debt, which has shot up astronomically in sheer dollars but consumes about the same percentage of household income to service as it did in the 1990s.

The reason we can afford such large debts is that interest rates are so low. At the beginning of 2000, it cost the U.S. government more than 6.5% to borrow money. Now it costs less than 2.5%. That means we can borrow 2½ times as much today for the same cost. Also, the overall economy has expanded dramatically, and relative to the size of the economy, the debt isn't particularly high by global standards.

(See pictures of the global financial crisis.)

Click here to continue reading.